You are about as confident over text, and measurably less accurate
The central finding comes from Kruger, Epley, Parker and Ng, writing in
the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in 2005. Across
five experiments they compared how well people thought they were
communicating tone with how well they actually were.
The cleanest version is their third study, which ran the same task
through three channels — e-mail, voice only, and face-to-face
— and measured both halves of the exchange. Take the sending half
first, because that is the half you control.
Pooled across all three channels, senders predicted they would
successfully communicate 88.8% of the emotions and
tones they were trying to convey, and managed
70.4%. That pooled gap is not the text penalty —
it is how badly people read their own clarity in general. The
channel-specific part is separate, and it points the way you would
expect: participants were significantly more overconfident over e-mail
than when using their voice.
The finding that matters most for a group chat is the one the authors
put almost as an aside. Participants’ ability to communicate
varied considerably depending on whether they used e-mail or
their voice — while their confidence in that ability showed
no detectable variation.
That sentence is the whole article. Your skill at
getting a tone across genuinely changes when you switch from a table to
a thread. Your sense of how well you are doing it, as far as this study
could detect, does not. So the channel moves one variable and leaves
your only instrument for noticing pointing at roughly the same number.
Worth stating precisely: a non-significant result means no difference
was detected, not that confidence is proven identical. The
claim is that your confidence is a poor alarm, not that it is a
constant.
Sender figures and both interactions from Study 3 of
Kruger, Epley, Parker & Ng (2005),
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 89(6), 925–936:
predicted vs. actual communication, F(1, 148) = 118.26, p < .001,
η² = .44; greater overconfidence over e-mail than voice,
F(2, 148) = 3.31, p = .039, η² = 0.04; ability varying by medium,
F(2, 151) = 4.68, p = .011, η² = 0.06, while confidence in that
ability did not, F < 1, ns.
The same study measured the receiving half too, and it fails in the
matching way. After each message, receivers picked the intended emotion
or tone from a list of four and ticked a box saying whether they were
confident in that pick. They ticked yes about 89% of the
time in every condition. How often they picked correctly moved a great
deal:
E-mail 89.3%62.8%26.5 points
Face-to-face 89.4%73.9%15.5 points
Voice only 89.4%73.3%16.1 points
Figures are the reported condition means from the same study,
F(2, 148) = 3.66, p = .028. This is the receiver’s
measure, and it is a forced choice among four candidate tones plus a
yes/no confidence tick made after each guess — not a prediction
made in advance, and not a measure of general understanding. The gap
column is simple arithmetic on the two columns, not a separately
reported statistic.
So both ends of the thread have the same defect pointing in the same
direction. You overestimate how well you sent it; they overestimate how
well they read it — and over text that second gap is roughly
ten points wider than it would be face-to-face. Neither
side has much of an instrument for noticing that anything has gone wrong.
The honest distance between this study and your group chat.
Kruger and colleagues ran a constrained laboratory task in 2005: pairs of
people, one sentence at a time, emoticons prohibited, a fixed menu of
tones, and no group audience, reactions, read receipts or live thread.
A modern group chat is none of those things. What transfers is the
asymmetry between confidence and accuracy across media; the specific
percentages describe that task, not your Saturday-night thread.
The authors trace this to egocentrism. When you write “fine, I’ll
just cover it,” you can hear your own delivery — the shrug, the
lightness, the joke you intended. That private soundtrack is unavailable
to everyone else, and it is very hard to set aside when estimating what
they received.
The authors’ own caution, which matters. In their
first study people expected 97% of their intended meanings to be decoded
and 84% actually were. The researchers explicitly warn against reading
this as evidence that people are bad at conveying tone in writing —
84%, as they note, is quite high. Their conclusion is narrower and is the
one this piece is built on: however good people are, they are
not as good as they believe. The danger is the unearned
confidence, not incompetence.